Selection bias in dynamically-measured super-massive black hole samples: consequences for pulsar timing arrays

Supermassive black hole -- host galaxy relations are key to the computation of the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency band. It has been recently pointed out that standard relations adopted in GWB computations are in fact biased-high. We show that when this selection bias is taken into account, the expected GWB in the PTA band is a factor of about three smaller than previously estimated. Compared to other scaling relations recently published in the literature, the median amplitude of the signal at $f=1$yr$^{-1}$ drops from $1.3\times10^{-15}$ to $4\times10^{-16}$. Although this solves any potential tension between theoretical predictions and recent PTA limits without invoking other dynamical effects (such as stalling, eccentricity or strong coupling with the galactic environment), it also makes the GWB detection more challenging.Comment: 6 pages 4 figures, submitted to MNRAS letter

Allocation of risk capital in a cost cooperative game induced by a modified expected shortfall

The standard theory of coherent risk measures fails to consider individual institutions as part of a system which might itself experience instability and spread new sources of risk to the market participants. This paper fills this gap and proposes a cooperative market game where agents and institutions play the same role. We take into account a multiple institutions framework where some institutions jointly experience distress, and evaluate their individual and collective impact on the remaining institutions in the market. To carry out the analysis, we define a new risk measure (SCoES) which is a generalization of the Expected Shortfall of and we characterize the riskiness profile as the outcome of a cost cooperative game played by institutions in distress. Each institution’s marginal contribution to the spread of riskiness towards the safe institutions in then evaluated by calculating suitable solution concepts of the game such as the Banzhaf–Coleman and the Shapley–Shubik values. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the Operational Research Society on 16/12/2019, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01605682.2019.168695

The use of aerial- and close-range photogrammetry for the mapping of the Lavini di Marco tracksite (Hettangian, Southern Alps, NE Italy)

(EXCERPT FROM ABSTRACT) Close-range photogrammetry was executed following the procedure proposed by Mallison & Wings (2014). More than seventy 3D models were obtained and interpreted by means of color-coded and contour line images, which allow to improve the ichno- logical knowledge of the tracksite. The 3D models of the best-preserved tracks were used for the osteological reconstruction of the trackmakers’ autopodia, supposing the arthral position of the phalangeal pads. Three indirect methods were used to correlate tracks and their trackmakers: (i) synapomorphy-based approach; (ii) phenetic correlation; (iii) coincidence correlation (see Carrano & Wilson, 2001) The final map was produced with different level of knowledge due to the distribution of tracks and current state of site preservation. Furthermore, it represents a complete documentation that will be used for future work of enhancement, preservation and valorization of the tracksite. The ichnotaxonomical review of the quadrupedal trackways led us to emend the diagnosis of Lavinipes cheminii Avanzini et al. (2003) and to assign several other sparse tracks and trackways to L. chemini. The skeletal reconstruction of fore and hind limbs points towards Gongxianosaurus sp. as the most suitable trackmaker of L. cheminii. The herein supposed Laurasian affinity of the Lavini di Marco dinosaur assemblage clashes with the previous hypotheses that always link the Southern Alps sector with the Gondwana mainland

The Stellar Mass Fundamental Plane: The virial relation and a very thin plane for slow-rotators

Early-type galaxies -- slow and fast rotating ellipticals (E-SRs and E-FRs) and S0s/lenticulars -- define a Fundamental Plane (FP) in the space of half-light radius $R_e$, enclosed surface brightness $I_e$ and velocity dispersion $\sigma_e$. Since $I_e$ and $\sigma_e$ are distance-independent measurements, the thickness of the FP is often expressed in terms of the accuracy with which $I_e$ and $\sigma_e$ can be used to estimate sizes $R_e$. We show that: 1) The thickness of the FP depends strongly on morphology. If the sample only includes E-SRs, then the observed scatter in $R_e$ is $\sim 16\%$, of which only $\sim 9\%$ is intrinsic. Removing galaxies with $M_*<10^{11}M_\odot$ further reduces the observed scatter to $\sim 13\%$ ($\sim 4\%$ intrinsic). The observed scatter increases to the $\sim 25\%$ usually quoted in the literature if E-FRs and S0s are added. If the FP is defined using the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of the observables, then the E-SRs again define an exceptionally thin FP, with intrinsic scatter of only $5\%$ orthogonal to the plane. 2) The structure within the FP is most easily understood as arising from the fact that $I_e$ and $\sigma_e$ are nearly independent, whereas the $R_e-I_e$ and $R_e-\sigma_e$ correlations are nearly equal and opposite. 3) If the coefficients of the FP differ from those associated with the virial theorem the plane is said to be `tilted'. If we multiply $I_e$ by the global stellar mass-to-light ratio $M_*/L$ and we account for non-homology across the population by using S\'ersic photometry, then the resulting stellar mass FP is less tilted. Accounting self-consistently for $M_*/L$ gradients will change the tilt. The tilt we currently see suggests that the efficiency of turning baryons into stars increases and/or the dark matter fraction decreases as stellar surface brightness increases.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

PC1643+4631A,B: The Lyman-Alpha Forest at the Edge of Coherence

This is the first measurement and detection of coherence in the intergalactic medium (IGM) at substantially high redshift (z~3.8) and on large physical scales (~2.5 h^-1 Mpc). We perform the measurement by presenting new observations from Keck LRIS of the high redshift quasar pair PC 1643+4631A, B and their Ly-alpha absorber coincidences. This experiment extends multiple sightline quasar absorber studies to higher redshift, higher opacity, larger transverse separation, and into a regime where coherence across the IGM becomes weak and difficult to detect. We fit 222 discrete Ly-alpha absorbers to sightline A and 211 to sightline B. Relative to a Monte Carlo pairing test (using symmetric, nearest neighbor matching) the data exhibit a 4sigma excess of pairs at low velocity splitting (<150 km/s), thus detecting coherence on transverse scales of ~2.5 h^-1 Mpc. We use spectra extracted from an SPH simulation to analyze symmetric pair matching, transmission distributions as a function of redshift and compute zero-lag cross-correlations to compare with the quasar pair data. The simulations agree with the data with the same strength (~4sigma) at similarly low velocity splitting above random chance pairings. In cross-correlation tests, the simulations agree when the mean flux (as a function of redshift) is assumed to follow the prescription given by Kirkman et al. (2005). While the detection of flux correlation (measured through coincident absorbers and cross-correlation amplitude) is only marginally significant, the agreement between data and simulations is encouraging for future work in which even better quality data will provide the best insight into the overarching structure of the IGM and its understanding as shown by SPH simulations.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures; accepted for publication in Astronomical Journa